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El Salvador/Before and after bitcoins
Why this crypto nightmare is a lesson for all
Though the bitcoin story has been told before in bits and pieces, El Salvador’s crypto-romance ending in tragedy has a lesson for everyone
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Latin America/Back to basics
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Why this crypto nightmare is a lesson for all
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Salvadoreans: Not a bit happy with bitcoins
Image courtesy: Reuters
El Salvador/Before and after bitcoins
March 3, 2025
Why this crypto nightmare is a lesson for all
Though the bitcoin story has been told before in bits and pieces, El Salvador’s crypto-romance ending in tragedy has a lesson for everyone
F
renzied money experiments often end in fiasco. El Salvador’s much-debated dalliance with the crypto is no exception. As its crypto-obsessed president Nayib Bukele bemoans the fate of his pet crypto project, the crypto crisis in El Salvador holds lessons for the crypto-crazy of the world. The manner in which he made a reckless move to make bitcoins legal tender in 2021 is a classic study in money madness. And his disregard for El Salvador’s dipping dollar reserves proved to be fatal.
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Making its fragile economy breathless
Worse, Mr Bukele made the bitcoins legal tender even as the American dollar continued to be one. Not that the whole set of woes El Salvador faced has been caused by his obsession with bitcoins. But the obsession did worsen the nation’s long-hanging problems. When Mr Bukele took over in 2019, El Salvador was already a sick nation in Central America. The crypto experiment went on to make matters worse.
As Mr Bukele embarked on a bitcoin-buying spree, El Salvador, about to default, tripped and tumbled. Debt to gross domestic product ratio was already high. High interest outgoes were making its fragile economy breathless. With no major inflows or investments forthcoming from foreign investors, alarmingly-wide fiscal deficit was hobbling the economy. To top it all, Mr Bukele’s team was hopelessly stuck in a groove as far as talks with the World Bank were concerned.
Investors had enough reasons to panic
Then, Mr Bukele did the unthinkable. He dumped the capital markets to raise money through tokenised blockchain bonds. So much so that he went into an over-bought position on bitcoins. Worse, even in that position, he was talking about building his bitcoin city and all the needed power stations for mining bitcoins. This idea proved to be counterproductive for equity markets. The bond markets too were on a tailspin as Salvadoran bonds were trading at heart-breaking levels.
That was in 2022.  More signs sprang up to confirm all was not well with the economy. In a desperate bid to stay afloat, public-sector pays were shelved. Now, investors had enough reasons to panic. Despite the World Bank finally approving the loan in 2023, El Salvador was staring into a financial abyss. The first thing on Mr Bukele’s agenda was to abandon his crypto project. The laws had to be changed to abolish payments of taxes in bitcoins. Even the private sector had to be given the option to accept cryptos for payments.
Exit of the crypto as a legal tender
As El Salvador began honouring its debt commitments, bond prices began crawling up. Bonds were bought back by Mr Bukele’s cronies at a discount, resulting in huge savings, which otherwise would have gone for repayment of loans. Even the fiscal deficit halved and settled down somewhere below five percent. The uptick in the economy led to decent tax collections, inward remittances and public revenues. Better, bitcoins were being shaken up.
The shakeup began with their outright degrading. It was a huge reform for El Salvador that it could bust the myth that cryptos can turn the 60-percent-plus unbanked Salvadoreans into banked people. Mr Bukele’s dream of making remittances cheaper with cryptos was lying shattered. He needed the World Bank to tell him to end his four-year-long bitcoin blowout. The exit of the crypto as a legal tender did show that the real villains of financial exclusion were a shrunk formal economy, low money literacy and absence of due diligence that is needed in matters of personal finance.
Chivo has brought in new headaches
This is why El Salvador is now working to better them. Efforts are underway to educate Salvadoreans on how to banish their obsession with remitting money in hard currency. The education is expected to bring down the incidence of financial crimes and offences. But the question Salvadoreans are asking today is whether the hurried launch of the Chivo digital wallet to replace bitcoins would help matters.
Government officials say it would. Their logic is simple. The digital wallet enables Salvadoreans to make payments, both in dollars and bitcoins. However, Chivo has brought in new headaches. As instances of identity thefts are rising faster, the government is now sceptical over the real utility of Chivo. So much so the idea of dumping even digital wallets is gaining ground. Had El Salvador not dumped the bitcoins as legal tender, even such a thinking wouldn’t have been possible.
What has been done so far is not enough
Truly, Salvadoreans are learning money lessons the hard way. When bitcoins were a legal tender, the World Bank was not keen to lend to El Salvador. Particularly because cryptos were so volatile that they endangered the economic stability of El Salvador, not to speak of their ability to provoke crimes like money laundering. Now that the cryptos and their buys are limited in El Salvador, the World Bank thinks the country is set for a quick recovery and hence the approval in 2023.
As promised to the World Bank, El Salvador has been reducing the daily rate of its bitcoin purchases. What has been done so far is not enough. The reductions have to be more and earlier buys need to be reversed. Only if these exercises are carried out, for a reasonably long time, would El Salvador be able to really get back to health. The job on hand is huge as El Salvador still owns over 6,000 bitcoins valued at $500m. This carries unrealised profits, but unforeseen costs too.
The bitterest part of this sad story
All the so-called crypto gains – from induced investments to stimulated tourism to financial inclusion – were so small that it was not worth the effort for El Salvador to have embraced the bitcoins as a legal tender. Worse, even the spread of crypto usage was limited to five to ten percent of tax payments despite all the hype and hoopla generated by the Bukele administration. Not surprising that El Salvador got disillusioned as people were still preferring hard currency over bitcoins.
The bitterest part of this sad story is that the legal-tenderisation of bitcoins, their subsequent dumping and the launch of the Chivo digital wallet, all these have cost El Salvador a whopping $400m. This sum incudes the cost of Chivo’s promotion, various related subsidies and auto-teller expenses. That clearly outstrips the unrealised profits on the government’s bitcoin holdings that Mr Bukele is bragging about.
Never too late to do the right thing
All through the crisis, El Salvador paid the price by way of high interest and high risk-premium on its borrowings. Default-risk ratings too were high, making loans still more expensive. At the end of it all, the bitcoin fiasco may end Mr Bukele’s popularity spell and his regime’s durability. The moral of the story is this. Crypto craze does no good to a country or an individual. El Salvador could not thus end its economic miseries with bitcoins. And the $400m incurred to dump them was worth the cost. El Salvador proves it is never too late to do the right thing.
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Why this crypto nightmare is a lesson for all
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Latin America: Banking becomes a bad habit
Image courtesy: Synchrony
Latin America/Back to basics
February 28, 2025
Latinos’ trust in their banks is declining
Despite Latin America trying hard to bank the unbanked, Latinos’ trust in their banks is declining. And informal channels are thriving
L
atin Americans are losing hope of having their money in banks. That means over one billion people want to be out of Latin America’s banking system. As banks lose people trust, Latinos are flocking to informal channels for saving and depositing money. For the distrusting Latinos, these channels are good enough, the scant security they offer notwithstanding. Warnings over how they would be left out of the formal economy are often ignored.
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Not popular even among the few rich
This trust deficit between the Latinos and their banks is hurting Latin America, its economy and progress. Yet governments in Latin America are unfazed. As they push formal banking hard, there is some progress somewhere. But that is a false indicator. Particularly because, despite the number of new accounts rising, the proliferation of informal banking channels goes on unchecked.
Undeterred, formal banks have been finetuning their marketing strategies. Of late, they have been focusing on the most severely unbanked sections of Latinos. Not surprising that their focus is now on women. And among them, the rural and the extremely poor. But making formal banks popular is easier said than done in Latin America. More so because they are not popular even among the relatively rich.
Informal channels are a godsend
Already, over 25 percent of Latin Americans are still unbanked. The fear now is that this number would move up rapidly when more Latinos drop out of the formal banking system in future. If the decline persists, Latin America could rank even below sub-Saharan Africa as far as banking coverage is concerned. Yet the distrust of formal banks is spreading like plague in Latin America.
Why are the Latinos distrusting their banks? It has a lot to do with rampant financial literacy. Add to this an informal banking sector that is massive and money-mighty. Given the money muscle, informal banks have been successful in attracting the poor and the financially-illiterate. They offer Latinos small, but attractive, monetary incentives. For the impoverished Latinos, who feel formal banks’ charges are high, informal banking channels are godsend.
Scams drove Latinos to informal bankers
The covid-19 pandemic too had its own catalytic role in expanding informal banks. Digital banking did spread the, but digital banking scams too multiplied. As scams began hitting the Latinos, they came back to their favourite informal bankers. Though some Latin American countries made bank accounts mandatory for Covid-aid transfers, the aid was not much. It was much smaller than what the Latinos were raising from informal money lenders.
A few other Latin American countries launched their own digital-payment systems. Not all were successful. As a result, contrarily, only the informal banking channels did a thriving money business. The informal private-fintech sector became the talk of the region. Experts say this sector is a clutch of challenger banks, whose USP lies in offering innovative, uncomplicated and easy-to-use informal banking options.
Volatility makes crypto coins unpopular
Even the so-called open-banks in Latin America have been a failure. They could not go farther than making formal banks share data. Despite the competition open-banks tried to create, they were not quite successful. Banking costs did dip a bit, innovation did happen to an extent, but open-banks could not replace informal banks. And Latin America remains largely unbanked to this day.
Meanwhile, Latin American politicians have been trying hard to popularise bitcoin as a medium of exchange and limit the use of cash for daily needs. These attempts have been not so successful. So much so that the Latinos in countries where bitcoins were made as a legal tender had to quickly abandon the idea as cryptos were found to be very volatile. So, back to informal banking channels.
Precipitating all sorts of inequalities
As Latinos find these informal banks more accessible, easy to deal with, and economical, formal banks are weakening. In turn, informal banks have reduced business volumes of formal banks and pushed banking costs up. Inevitably, Latin American banks are caught in a vicious cycle of higher costs and lower business. Ultimately, even the few bank accounts Latinos maintain in them are fleeing.
The slow weakening of formal banks leads to the slow acceptance of instruments like credit cards. Not many takers for them in Latin America. This is not only leading to the slow but sure decline of formal banks in Latin America, it has precipitated all sorts of inequalities in the region. The gap between the rich and the poor has widened. So is the gap between the banked among men and women.
Poverty causing the steady decline of banks
In turn, these inequalities slow down the growth of formal banks, leading to flight of customers to informal bankers. As formal banks vanish in rural areas, informal bankers and lenders, and more of them, are stepping in to fill the vacuum. The ultimate victim in this vicious cycle are the Latinos, being unbanked to being poor and back to being unbanked. Banking in Latin America is a snakes-and-ladders game.
So, the question is what happens to financial inclusion in Latin America? Nothing much. It just remains a pipe dream. Heads of state in Latin America are yet to realise that financial inclusion is much more than depositing money in banks. With woeful record of financial literacy in Latin America, poverty is on the rise. Again, this is causing the steady decline of formal banks. The cycle is getting more vicious than ever.
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Latinos’ trust in their banks is declining
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America’s rich: In uncertain territory now
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United States/Shifting pains
February 26, 2025
America’s wealthy must prepare for the unexpected
Donald Trump is a good enough reason for America’s wealthy to prepare for the unexpected. Here is how they can
I
ronically, under president Donald Trump, America’s wealthy are worried. This is surprising because Mr Trump is usually pro-rich. Despite their belief that he would not crucify them on the cross of Joe Biden-inspired billionaire’s tax, America’s affluent families should begin looking at safer pastures outside their country. Mr Trump is quite unpredictable, even the wealthy in America should have the sense to begin preparing for the unexpected, perhaps for the worst.
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But their number is dwindling
The most ideal thing to do now is to move assets to zones and countries that are considered safe during uncertainty. Some wealthy families in America have already initiated the shift. The altering political landscape in America is so uncertain that America’s rich cannot afford to drag their feet and procrastinate for long. Now, protecting assets should be their top priority. More so because their personal finances can weaken due to erratic economic policies.
For America’s wealthy, this may sound heretical. Any other time, they would have exclaimed in the negative over such a fear. After all, they have always seen Mr Trump as a protagonist of the prosperous. But their number is dwindling. They are worried now about his policies affecting their personal finances, the economy and the markets. The initial euphoria over Mr Trump’s victory is now giving way to scepticism.
Revealing his revenge strategies
So, moving assets, wealth and investments to safer spots abroad will be the right thing to do. The faint-hearted among the rich must seek permanent residency or citizenship in countries where political leadership and policies are predictable. Personal wealth managers say the number of Americans wanting to move out has been rising, particularly after Mr Trump began indicating the direction his policies would take. Truly, the wealthy are worried.
The best places for shifting assets now are United Arab Emirates, Dubai particularly. Also, Singapore and Switzerland. As America’s wealthy continue to consider moving their wealth, more worries are assailing them. Inevitably, after Mr Trump began to revealing his revenge strategies to extract justice for the Biden administration’s perceived wrongdoing. The worried wealthy are really fearful about their assets.
A string of actionable strategies
Their fears are not fiction. Those among America’s wealthy not lucky to get pre-emptive pardons from the Biden administration are the most scared of them. They are worrying about the rising possibility of the Trump administration targeting them. They fear that their assets could be impounded, their bank accounts frozen, their brokerage accounts paralysed. These constitute post-Trump fears, say immigration attorneys.
More money means more headaches in America. More so after Mr Trump returned to the White House. This is why, the rich in America should at once begin exploring options to move their wealth and residence. If an American is rich and Trumpian revenge is consuming him now, he should have a proper plan of action for his personal finance. That plan should include a string of actionable strategies.
Shifting has become a hot-button issue
One, getting that document prepared in detail with all available options for moving assets and residence. Two, obtaining a second passport. This is important as the Trump administration could cancel an American passport anytime, even without notice. Three, opening non-American bank and brokerage accounts at the earliest. Four, funding these two accounts sufficiently. Such a four-pronged strategy is a priority if an American thinks he is in the list of Mr Trump’s perceived enemies.
The Trump administration taking revenge on perceived enemies is a realistic fear. This is why Americans should protect themselves from the Trump administration’s unwarranted civil and criminal persecution. Remember, the persecution could drain your wealth, finances and emotions. Unavoidably, the idea of shifting assets and residence overseas has become a hot-button issue among America’s rich.
Desperate to hedge their bets
Usually, Americans like to move their assets and residences when the opposition takes over. The issue is not which party wins, but whether it is the other side. When the other wins, uncertainty clouds the future. That is when the wealthy in America get desperate to hedge their bets. It is that time now in America. Better, they should be prepared for the unexpected. Mr Unpredictable is here.
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America’s wealthy must prepare for the unexpected
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